On Sunday, July 21, at JFK’s Terminal 4, an unexpected announcement stopped travelers in their tracks: “Holy shit. Biden’s out,” exclaimed an older man in front of me. Joe Biden’s sudden withdrawal from the presidential race sent shockwaves across the nation, reigniting energy in the Democratic campaign. In just days, the party raised over $200 million in donations, and Vice President Kamala Harris quickly secured endorsements from senior party leaders, making her the presumptive Democratic nominee.
An Election Defined by Age
From the outset, age has been a central issue in this election. Harris, who is 59, is decades younger than Biden, which alleviates some concerns about his ability to serve another term. Yet, age remains a critical factor, as both Harris and her Republican opponent must appeal to both young and senior voters, groups that have traditionally aligned with opposite parties but are now more unpredictable.
When Biden was in the race, polls defied conventional wisdom: young voters, typically left-leaning, showed signs of leaning Republican, while seniors, who usually favor Republicans, appeared to be shifting toward Democrats. However, Harris’s entry into the race seems to be reversing these trends. She’s making strides with young voters but facing challenges in maintaining Biden’s lead among seniors.
The Youth Vote: A Key Battleground
There are 52.6 million eligible voters aged 18-29 this year, with significant numbers in swing states like Michigan and Minnesota, where youth voter turnout is notably high. Polls indicate that the economy, immigration, abortion, and foreign policy are the top concerns for this demographic.
“Kamala is brat.” In less than a week, Harris’s youth-focused campaign has gained more traction among young voters than Biden ever did, turning his eight-point deficit into an 18-point lead for her. Harris’s strong advocacy for abortion rights and a more critical stance on U.S. involvement in Gaza are likely to work in her favor.
Her campaign has also capitalized on social media, using memes and endorsements from youth groups and celebrities like Gen-Z pop star Charli XCX, who tweeted, “Kamala is brat” — a nod of approval tied to her viral new album.
However, Jon Lieber, Managing Director at Eurasia Group, questions whether Harris’s momentum with young voters will last.
“Is this election going to be about Harris, the person, versus Donald Trump, who Americans know and either love or hate very well? Or is it going to be about Kamala Harris, the meme, running against Donald Trump?”
Although issues like abortion, climate change, and foreign policy are significant for the youth vote, economic concerns may ultimately drive their decisions. Inflation and the cost of living, linked to the Biden administration’s challenges, could hurt Harris.
“Trump just does better on the top issues in this campaign, which are inflation, the economy, and immigration,” Lieber notes. He adds that as vice president, Harris was often relegated to a “D-list” of policy issues, potentially weakening her appeal.
Trump’s youth outreach has centered on economic matters, using platforms popular with younger audiences, such as a podcast with Gen Z influencer Logan Paul and a successful TikTok account with 7.5 million followers. His campaign is also leveraging youth organizations like Turning Point Action to rally young conservatives.
Youth Turnout and the Role of Third-Party Candidates
Youth voters have a history of low turnout, typically disadvantaging Democrats. However, the 2020 election saw a record-high youth turnout of 51%. Since Harris entered the race, 72% of voters under 30 say they are likely to vote, up from 64% before Biden’s withdrawal. Cyrus Beschloss of Generation Lab suggests this could help Harris secure an “Obama-level” youth vote.
Third-party candidate RFK Jr. is polling at just 6% overall but could still influence the outcome. Around 8% of younger voters say they would support him, potentially siphoning votes from either Trump or Harris in a close race.
The Senior Vote: A Critical Demographic
In the last election, over 55 million seniors (age 65 and older) voted, comprising more than 30% of the electorate. Seniors are a significant force in swing states like Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, where warm weather and low taxes attract retirees. Ninety-five percent of seniors report being very likely to vote in November.
The key issues for seniors include the economy, immigration, and democracy, though their economic concerns differ from those of younger voters. Seniors worry more about their financial security and the preservation of Medicare and Social Security.
Biden’s 2020 campaign was particularly effective in courting the senior vote, turning the “silver vote” blue for the first time in 20 years. The “Seniors for Biden-Harris” initiative, which included meetings at senior-friendly activities like pickleball and bingo, resonated well, especially on issues like lowering prescription drug costs and capping insulin prices.
However, Harris is currently polling two points behind Trump among seniors, 49% to 47%. If she cannot narrow this gap by November, her chances could be jeopardized.
The reasons for seniors’ return to the Republican Party are not entirely clear, and polling data will take time to provide more reliable insights. A recent NYTimes/Siena survey shows that a majority of older voters believe Trump would be a stronger leader than Harris, 61% to 46%.
Nevertheless, Social Security remains a top issue for 80% of senior voters, which could benefit Harris. She co-sponsored the Social Security Expansion Act and received an endorsement from the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare. But in this election, Social Security has become a battleground issue.
“Social Security is really an up-for-grabs issue [as] Democrats only have a three-point advantage… so the parties are basically tied,” explains Jeff Liszt, partner at Impact Research.
With three months to go, the election has already seen unprecedented developments, including Biden’s withdrawal, a failed assassination attempt, and numerous criminal convictions. The race remains highly fluid, and both candidates face the challenge of securing critical votes from both younger and older Americans. All eyes are on whether Harris can maintain her momentum with youth voters and regain ground among seniors, or if Trump will successfully adapt his strategy to win over these pivotal groups.
